Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

Background: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings: We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ,35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average prepandemic season, with only 19% in persons ,65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010–2012). Conclusions: We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ,10-fold higher than the World Health Organization’s laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons ,65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics

Surveillance recommendations based on an exploratory analysis of respiratory syncytial virus reports derived from the European Influenza Surveillance System

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important pathogen that can cause severe illness in infants and young children. In this study, we assessed whether data on RSV collected by the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS) could be used to build an RSV surveillance system in Europe. METHODS: Influenza and RSV data for the 2002–2003 winter season were analysed for England, France, the Netherlands and Scotland. Data from sentinel physician networks and other sources, mainly hospitals, were collected. Respiratory specimens were tested for influenza and RSV mainly by virus culture and polymerase chain reaction amplification. RESULTS: Data on RSV were entered timely into the EISS database. RSV contributed noticeably to influenza-like illness: in England sentinel RSV detections were common in all age groups, but particularly in young children with 20 (40.8%) of the total number of sentinel swabs testing positive for RSV. Scotland and France also reported the highest percentages of RSV detections in the 0–4 year age group, respectively 10.3% (N = 29) and 12.2% (N = 426). In the Netherlands, RSV was detected in one person aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: We recommend that respiratory specimens collected in influenza surveillance are also tested systematically for RSV and emphasize the use of both community derived data and data from hospitals for RSV surveillance. RSV data from the EISS have been entered in a timely manner and we consider that the EISS model can be used to develop an RSV surveillance system equivalent to the influenza surveillance in Europe

The community impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the WHO European Region: a comparison with historical seasonal data from 28 countries

Contains fulltext : 109779.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: The world has recently experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century that lasted 14 months from June 2009 to August 2010. This study aimed to compare the timing, geographic spread and community impact during the winter wave of influenza pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 to historical influenza seasons in countries of the WHO European region. METHODS: We assessed the timing of pandemic by comparing the median peak of influenza activity in countries of the region during the last seven influenza seasons. The peaks of influenza activity were selected by two independent researchers using predefined rules. The geographic spread was assessed by correlating the peak week of influenza activity in included countries against the longitude and latitude of the central point in each country. To assess the community impact of pandemic influenza, we constructed linear regression models to compare the total and age-specific influenza-like-illness (ILI) or acute respiratory infection (ARI) rates reported by the countries in the pandemic season to those observed in the previous six influenza seasons. RESULTS: We found that the influenza activity reached its peak during the pandemic, on average, 10.5 weeks (95% CI 6.4-14.2) earlier than during the previous 6 seasons in the Region, and there was a west to east spread of pandemic A(H1N1) influenza virus in the western part of the Region. A regression analysis showed that the total ILI or ARI rates were not higher than historical rates in 19 of the 28 countries. However, in countries with age-specific data, there were significantly higher consultation rates in the 0-4 and/or 5-14 age groups in 11 of the 20 countries. CONCLUSIONS: Using routine influenza surveillance data, we found that pandemic influenza had several differential features compared to historical seasons in the region. It arrived earlier, caused significantly higher number of outpatient consultations in children in most countries and followed west to east spread that was previously observed during some influenza seasons with dominant A (H3N2) ifluenza viruses. The results of this study help to understand the epidemiology of 2009 influenza pandemic and can be used for pandemic preparedness planning

Electron spin dynamics in quantum dots and related nanostructures due to hyperfine interaction with nuclei

We review and summarize recent theoretical and experimental work on electron spin dynamics in quantum dots and related nanostructures due to hyperfine interaction with surrounding nuclear spins. This topic is of particular interest with respect to several proposals for quantum information processing in solid state systems. Specifically, we investigate the hyperfine interaction of an electron spin confined in a quantum dot in an s-type conduction band with the nuclear spins in the dot. This interaction is proportional to the square modulus of the electron wave function at the location of each nucleus leading to an inhomogeneous coupling, i.e. nuclei in different locations are coupled with different strength. In the case of an initially fully polarized nuclear spin system an exact analytical solution for the spin dynamics can be found. For not completely polarized nuclei, approximation-free results can only be obtained numerically in sufficiently small systems. We compare these exact results with findings from several approximation strategies.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures. Topical Review to appear in J. Phys.: Condens. Matte

Internet-based monitoring of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the general population of the Netherlands during the 2003–2004 influenza season

BACKGROUND: An internet-based survey of influenza-like illness (ILI) – the Great Influenza Survey or GIS – was launched in the Netherlands in the 2003–2004 influenza season. The aim of the present study was to validate the representativeness of the GIS population and to compare the GIS data with the official ILI data obtained by Dutch GPs participating in the Dutch Sentinel Practice Network. METHOD: Direct mailings to schools and universities, and repeated interviews on television and radio, and in newspapers were used to kindle the enthusiasm of a broad section of the public for GIS. Strict symptomatic criteria for ILI were formulated with the assistance of expert institutes and only participants who responded at least five times to weekly e-mails asking them about possible ILI symptoms were included in the survey. Validation of GIS was done at different levels: 1) some key demographic (age distribution) and public health statistics (prevalence of asthma and diabetes, and influenza vaccination rates) for the Dutch population were compared with corresponding figures calculated from GIS; 2) the ILI rates in GIS were compared with the ILI consultation rates reported by GPs participating in the Dutch Sentinel Practice Network. RESULTS: 13,300 persons (53% of total responders), replied at least five times to weekly e-mails and were included in the survey. As expected, there was a marked under-representation of the age groups 0–10 years and 81->90 years in the GIS population, although the similarities were remarkable for most other age groups, albeit that the age groups between 21 and 70 years were slightly overrepresented. There were striking similarities between GIS and the Dutch population with regard to the prevalence of asthma (6.4% vs. 6.9%) and the influenza vaccination rates, and to a lesser degree for diabetes (2.4% vs. 3.5%). The vaccination rates in patients with asthma or diabetes, and persons older than 65 years were 68%, 85%, and 85% respectively in GIS, while the corresponding percentages in the Dutch population were 73%, 85% and 87%. There was also a marked similarity between the seasonal course of ILI measured by GIS and the GPs. Although the ILI rate in GIS was about 10 times higher, the curves followed an almost similar pattern, with peak incidences occurring in the same week. CONCLUSION: The current study demonstrates that recruitment of a high number of persons willing to participate in on-line health surveillance is feasible. The information gathered proved to be reliable, as it paralleled the information obtained via an undisputed route. We believe that the interactive nature of GIS and the appealing subject were keys to its success

The appropriateness of prescribing antibiotics in the community in Europe: study design

Contains fulltext : 97417.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Over 90% of all antibiotics in Europe are prescribed in primary care. It is important that antibiotics are prescribed that are likely to be effective; however, information about antibiotic resistance in the community is incomplete. The aim of our study is to investigate the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing in primary care in Europe by collecting and combining patterns of antibiotic resistance patterns and antibiotic prescription patterns in primary care. We will also evaluate the appropriateness of national antibiotic prescription guidelines in relation to resistance patterns. METHODS/DESIGN: Antibiotic resistance will be studied in an opportunistic sample from the community in nine European countries. Resistance data will be collected by taking a nose swab of persons (N = 4,000 per country) visiting a primary care practice for a non-infectious disease. Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae will be isolated and tested for resistance to a range of antibiotics in one central laboratory. Data on antibiotic prescriptions over the past 5 years will be extracted from the electronic medical records of General Practitioners (GPs). The results of the study will include the prevalence and resistance data of the two species and 5 years of antibiotic prescription data in nine European countries.The odds of receiving an effective antibiotic in each country will be calculated as a measure for the appropriateness of prescribing. Multilevel analysis will be used to assess the appropriateness of prescribing. Relevant treatment guidelines of the nine participating countries will be evaluated using a standardized instrument and related to the resistance patterns in that country. DISCUSSION: This study will provide valuable and unique data concerning resistance patterns and prescription behaviour in primary care in nine European countries. It will provide evidence-based recommendations for antibiotic treatment guidelines that take resistance patterns into account which will be useful for both clinicians and policy makers. By improving antibiotic use we can move towards controlling the resistance problem globally

A novel outbred mouse model of 2009 pandemic influenza and bacterial co-infection severity

Influenza viruses pose a significant health risk and annually impose a great cost to patients and the health care system. The molecular determinants of influenza severity, often exacerbated by secondary bacterial infection, are largely unclear. We generated a novel outbred mouse model of influenza virus, Staphylococcus aureus, and coinfection utilizing influenza A/CA/07/2009 virus and S. aureus (USA300). Outbred mice displayed a wide range of pathologic phenotypes following influenza virus or co-infection ranging broadly in severity. Influenza viral burden positively correlated with weight loss although lung histopathology did not. Inflammatory cytokines including IL-6, TNF-α, G-CSF, and CXCL10 positively correlated with both weight loss and viral burden. In S. aureus infection, IL-1β, G-CSF, TNF-α, and IL-6 positively correlated with weight loss and bacterial burden. In co-infection, IL-1β production correlated with decreased weight loss suggesting a protective role. The data demonstrate an approach to identify biomarkers of severe disease and to understand pathogenic mechanisms in pneumonia. © 2013 McHugh et al